Eurovision 2018 Preview part 15 – Conclusions & predictions

Posted: 18/04/2018 in Eurovision 2018, Eurovision 2018 preview

So we’ve sat through 43 entries and now the time has come to get out our inner medium. Let’s try to predict the outcome of both semis and who’ll come out on top in the Grand Final. Oh crystal ball, crystal ball, save us all, tell me life is beautiful, mirror mirror on the wall…

Let’s start ath the very beginning, a very good place to start!

Semi 1 Qualifiers

Here are my gut instincts – which may or may not have been influenced by a country’s past qualifying record – when it comes to possible qualifiers:

Sure: Azerbaijan / Czechia / Israel / Bulgaria / Greece / Armenia

Unsure: Albania / Belgium / Lithuania / Estonia / Austria / Finland / Switzerland / Cyprus

Nope: Iceland / Belarus / FYRMacedonia / Croatia / Ireland

If there were to be one BIG surprise in this semi, it would be Azerbaijan not making it – not that it wouldn’t deserve that NQ, but we all (should) know better. Out of the ones that are labelled unsure I feel Albania will loose out because Armenia’s in, Lithuania might get lost, Finland gets outtrashed by Cyprus and Switzerland is…well…Switzerland. So I end up with these ten:

  • Azerbaijan
  • Belgium
  • Czechia
  • Israel
  • Estonia
  • Bulgaria
  • Austria
  • Greece
  • Armenia
  • Cyprus

But it’s clear by now we’re going to get surprises, and some of them might leave a bitter aftertaste. A LOT will depend on staging, vocals and camera work. Definitely the most unpredictable semi in years.

Luckily there’s another semi…

Semi 2 Qualifiers

Here are my gut instincts – which may or may not have been influenced by a country’s past qualifying record – when it comes to possible qualifiers:

Sure: Norway / Denmark / Russia / Moldova / Netherlands / Australia / Sweden / Ukraine

Unsure: Romania / Georgia / Poland / Hungary

Nope: Serbia / San Marino / Malta / Latvia / Montenegro / Slovenia

Kill your darlings as they say, so I had to leave Latvia and Slovenia behind – even though female singers are poorly represented in the second half of this semi. The ‘sure’ and ‘nope’ countries are easier to define than in semi one, the doubt is high when having to decide the two remaining qualifiers from the ‘unsure’ section. Based on draw and past experience, I’m going for these ten:

  • Norway
  • Denmark
  • Russia
  • Moldova
  • Netherlands
  • Australia
  • Georgia
  • Poland
  • Sweden
  • Ukraine

 – Yes, that’s seven consecutive entries for ya, living on the edge! I could see Russia as a NQ for the first time, but they have strong allies in this semi. And I’m still tempted to chuck Georgia out, simply for going too far out of the box, and keeping Hungary in.

 Grand Final predictions

Now for the million dollar question: who’ll win the bloody thing? Obvious answer: haven’t got a freakin’ clue. Let’s go for a segmented approach then!

Bookies Top 5

  • Israel: Objectively it stands a very good chance. It’s contemporary in every department and Netta charms everyone’s socks off. I still don’t feel it myself, much like Italy last year.
  • Czechia: Mikolas sure knows how to sell it, but a very accessible song it ain’t – except fort he saxophone bit (again, hi Moldova 2017). It used to  be a contender in my mind, until Israel and Norway came along. Israel will outhype it, and Norway will eat away points from it.  I don’t think this is Czechia’s year, but well done to them for finally entering the circle of contenders.
  • Estonia: The most difficult one to guestimate. It’s hugely popular and equally polarizing, and almost no operatic-ish entry (bar Italy 2015) has really shone at Eurovision. But Elina’s a star, so who knows.
  • Bulgaria: It might score a high top ten position, but do you really see this take the crown? I sure don’t. A lot of blowing, but not enough puff.
  • Australia: No idea how they ended up in the bookies top 5. Are they serious?

Dimivision’s Division of Danger

Of course I don’t entirely agree with the bookies, so here’s my list of contenders:

  • France: As previously stated I might be blinded by my unconditional love for it, but I still have a got feeling that this is going to do VERY well.
  • Sweden: it’s near invisible in every poll I encounter, but that brilliant stage show is a force to be reckoned with and will push this a very long way.
  • Norway: Much like Sweden it’s nowhere in the polls, and much like Sweden it’s the live rendition that’ll give it that certain je-ne-sais-quoi. Do not underestimate the Power of the Rybak. Unless Czechia can stop him.
  • Greece: Ever since it was released I’ve considered it to be dangerous and I stand by that gut feeling. If they get everything right, this could be the surprise winner à la Azerbaijan 2011.
  • Spain: I wanted to include a real surprise winner and Spain was the first to come to mind. I know, weird. Portugal was a close second though. They’re both songs that might manage to strike the right chord. I’m opting for Spain because its stage show will certainly get people talking and as we say in the world of communications & marketing: no such thing as bad publicity. Am I right, Russia?

So there we have it, all in writing. Who do you think it going to win? Try and predict it in the poll below. But first, let’s take a look at the final Dimivision result after all 43 entries and 14 preview posts (click picture for full view):

Having trouble deciding for yourself? Get your own top 43 on http://esc.gerbear.com/sorter2018.htm

And now it’s up to you – who do you think will win ESC 2018? Thanks for reading and voting, and have a happy Eurovision! Watch this spot for some updates during Eurovision week!

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Comments
  1. Shai says:

    On both semis you predict 6 from first half and 4 from second half to qualify.
    You do know it never happened before. Not that it can’t or won’t happen and if it happens, this year is the one to break all rules. Especially when it comes to semi 1

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